There is a term which we seem to hear more of these days and this is the ‘Black Swan’ effect.
The Black Swan concept was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former risk analyst, defining the concept as…’an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black Swan events are characterised by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.’
So what examples of there of Black Swan events in everyday life we might recognise? Perhaps the most recent is Covid-19, although a pandemic had been predicted some. If this falls short, then maybe 9/11: whilst the west has been subject to terrorist attacks before, none had previously been on this scale.
Additionally, according to McKinsey Global Institute, companies across a broad spectrum of industries can “expect supply chain disruptions lasting a month or longer to occur every 3.7 years.” Having had the problems with shipping container availability following Covid we now face disruption in the Red Sea. The gap between these may not be quite 3.7 years, but the question is, could they have been predicted beyond the assumption a major event is inevitable, we just don’t know what or when?
But we’re more concerned with such types of events in a business and manufacturing environment, although the container example had huge ramifications for many businesses globally – not only in terms of actual supply, but the huge increase in transport costs and consequent inflation.
So how does a Black Swan effect translate to a packaging production line with ELAU PacDrive equipment? The obvious example would be a major breakdown on one – or many lines simultaneously – without the knowledge or expertise on-site available to fix it. The average cost of unplanned downtime in manufacturing is over £5K per hour. Couple this with a new, significant customer contract for which late delivery of the initial order could affect your reputation and the seriousness can rapidly escalate.
With the increasing adoption of condition monitoring and predictive maintenance, the risk of such an event is much reduced, but it isn’t entirely eliminated. Which raises the questions: what level of risk of such an event happening are you willing to take and what does an appropriate contingency plan look like?
A good starting point would be the overall health of your equipment. We can help firstly with Site Surveys, identifying all your PacDrive 3 and obsolete ELAU PacDrive M equipment. From there we can help put together a plan to best protect all your PacDrive equipment based on your budget and appetite for risk. Our comprehensive cover includes on-site and remote breakdown support, parts and spares and loan programme. Plus as a Schneider Electric Official Training Partner we offer comprehensive training for your engineers, to equip them with the skills and knowledge to be able to diagnose and maintain machines with ELAU PacDrive systems confidently and safely.
Whilst we may not be able to eliminate a Black Swan event, but we can hopefully help mitigate the consequences.